It’s safe to say that 2024 was very much a ‘mixed bag’ when it came to the property market in New Zealand.
While some regions saw a tentative growth in activity, others remained slow moving, with high interest rates continuing to plague those with mortgages - and those wanting to get one.
So as we move into the fresh start of a brand new year, what’s happening for both buyers and sellers in rural, lifestyle and provincial towns? For Peter Newbold, GM of Real Estate at PGG Wrightson, the focus is firmly on quiet optimism.
“I think we’re finally coming off the bottom of the cycle to move into recovery - and granted, it’s been quite a long ‘slump’ period compared to past cycles. But I don’t see it going straight into a boom or going crazy, which is fine. That’s not a negative, I just feel like it will be a long way back to those ‘heady days’ where everything was selling fast, for really high prices.
“Some regions will come out of the blocks quicker than others, often those in closer proximity to the larger metropolitan centres.”
However, Peter still emphasises that this is a positive for the market.
“What we will see over the next few years is steady growth. It will feel more orderly and ‘controlled’. Listings are on the up, and having more stock means more choice for buyers, and those who are soon-to-be-buyers (after their property sells).
”In the lifestyle market, the year to November 2024 saw an increase of 8.5% of properties sold compared to the same period in 2023, with the value of their transactions reaching $6.65 billion - highlighting the appeal of lifestyle properties across New Zealand. And farm sales were on the up in spring, rising 27.7% compared to the same September to November period in 2023.
What the experts had to say
The end of 2024 brought with it a flurry of predictions for the year ahead from economists and property experts. And thankfully, most of the commentary was encouraging. There was a shift in market sentiment nationwide in November, says Jen Baird, CEO of REINZ. After a challenging year, recent data indicated promising signs of increased activity, which will hopefully continue in 2025.
“This is a good time to make transactions, as prices remain stable, and interest rates decrease. Buyers are benefiting from steady prices and increasing options, while sellers in many areas are seeing stronger interest.
”And all the major banks are saying they are anticipating a 6% to 10.9% rise in house prices in the coming year. So the message for buyers is to ‘prepare now so you can act quickly’ - Andrew Nicol, managing partner of Opes Partners, told OneRoof. He said it was important for those who may be looking to buy to get ahead of any potential boom.
“Preparation is the number one thing I’d be doing now if I was a soon-to-be, or aspiring, property owner. I'd be going to the bank, going to the brokers, finding out how much money I could borrow, finding out the difference between buying existing or new. I’d also want to know if I needed to renovate, as that would affect lending,” he said.
“By getting pre-approved early, you’re in a position to recognise a good deal and take action swiftly - before house prices go up. I do think there will be quite a lot of momentum in 2025.”
But independent economics commentator Tony Alexander was slightly more constrained with his view of what the year ahead would look like.
“Through 2025 I expect activity levels to move higher in a controlled manner with prices doing the same thing. The key driver will be falling interest rates. But the absence of big interest rate falls will eventually occupy people’s minds.
“This will have the interesting effect of constraining the feeding on itself (FOMO) tendency of housing market price rises come the late part of the year.”
Regions leading the way in 2025
According to QV operations manager James Wilson, Waikato and the wider Canterbury region were two of the three places to watch this year (with Auckland the third), particularly for first home buyers and investors.
Peter Newbold agrees, with provincial New Zealand continuing to prove its popularity by providing strong pockets of activity in and around the Canterbury region, as well as the Waikato - particularly around the Cambridge area.
This is where PGG Wrightson have seen properties priced appropriately, particularly lifestyle blocks, and tend to be in close proximity to major towns and cities - sentiments echoed by David Henderson, Business Manager for PGG Wrightson Real Estate.
“From Te Anau to Oamaru, Timaru, Ashburton and Amberley in the South Island, to Feilding in the Manawatu, Waipukurau in Central Hawke’s Bay and Dargaville in Northland - this is where we are seeing really steady activity within our offices. It also helps that we have key operators who are dominant in those regions, with a large local market share.”
David has regular meetings with sales managers around the country and notes that the outlook is definitely more encouraging than it was, compared to the same period 12 months ago. With more listings on the market and a potential further OCR drop in February, he says there is plenty of stimulus for movement.
Oamaru has earned itself a reputation over the past few years as the place-to-be for both first home buyers, and retirees looking to pay off their mortgage - as well as getting more ‘bang for their buck’. The median house price of $465,000 is $100,000 to $200,000 less than other neighbouring towns and cities, but with similar amenities, services and proximity to metropolitan areas still on offer.
And it seems the whole Southland region saw a boom in 2024, with an increase of 17.7% for its median price over the past year. From $440,000 to $518,000, it is a record high for the region and the first time it has recorded a median price over $500,000.
On the Northern outskirts of Christchurch, residential and lifestyle sales consultant Maria Rickerby for Amberley has seen an increase of active buyers come into the market over the last few months, and while properties priced between the $750,000 - $1,000,000 are a little difficult to get interest for, those below or above this figure are turning over relatively easily.
“We have a large retired population, so there is often plenty of activity from them downsizing property. We also have many people coming to the area from outside of the Hurunui district, as people become aware Amberley is an easy commute to the city and we have plenty to offer in our vibrant, fast growing community.”
Further south, Te Anau business development manager and sales consultant Sandra Macnamara is seeing a lot more properties being listed with vendors downsizing to free up funds, or relocating, and she says the first home buyer market is also really active.
“Title sections for sale are very limited now, as purchasers are moving quickly to buy whatever is available - often resulting in multi-offer situations. Untitled residential sections are available, however we do expect that in 2025 prices will rise for all types of property.”
Top 10 suburbs of 2024 (by Oneroof)
These ten locations experienced the highest annual change in the average property value for their respective suburb.
- Blaketown, Grey - 25.1%
- Woodville, Tararua - 21.9%
- Cobden, Grey - 21.9%
- Runanga, Grey - 19.8%
- Hokitika, Westland - 17.1%
- Pahiatua, Tararua - 16.9%
- Karoro, Grey - 14.1%
- Lake Hayes, Queenstown-Lakes - 13.8%
- Greymouth, Grey - 13.7%
- Methven, Ashburton - 12.4%
Keen to find out how much your property might be worth in 2025?
Our friendly and knowledgeable PGG Wrightson Real Estate sales consultants are always here to help. Get in touch today, and let’s get you moving tomorrow.
