Well into winter of 2025, what’s the latest update when it comes to New Zealand’s regional property markets?
The short answer is... it’s complicated. But what we know halfway into the year is that things are slowly shifting, interest rates are falling (but not sparking a rush), and buyers are still being pretty cautious.
Here’s a quick look at what’s influencing the market this winter and what it means for those looking beyond the big cities.
Interest rates are falling, but it’s not causing a flurry of activity
Due to the Reserve Bank lowering the official cash rate again, interest rates have been edging down, with some banks now offering mortgage deals just under 5%. And with more cuts expected, there might be a further drop to come - but we’re probably getting close to the bottom of the interest rate cycle.
Normally, lower interest rates would get people excited as this should make home loans cheaper and encourage more people to buy. But that hasn’t really happened yet. Many buyers are still cautious because there’s still some concern about things like job security, inflation, and whether prices might drop again after they buy - so they’re holding off on making big decisions, like buying a house.
For those with mortgages, ANZ's economists say there could be merit in taking one more short-term fix (like six months) before locking in a longer term. But there’s no one-size-fits-all answer and with a lot of uncertainty still around, they say it’s wise to stay flexible.
A more balanced market
Regional and provincial areas are now experiencing a more balanced playing field, as prices have stabilised in many parts of the country. And that’s actually good news for both sides - buyers have more time to make decisions and sellers who price their property realistically and present it well are still closing solid deals.
Yes, interest rates are still a main talking point and they continue to influence what buyers can borrow, especially first-home buyers. But with the Reserve Bank holding the OCR steady for now and only hints of eventual easing later in the year, many are choosing to buy now rather than wait and compete later.
In the provinces, where property values are often lower than the national average, lifestyle seekers may find the numbers still stack up, especially when compared to city prices.
Where regional house prices are rising
While the national average asking price is holding steady, some regions are ‘bucking the trend’. For example, in May Southland hit an all-time high, with average asking prices up 6.5% year-on-year to just over $564,000, Taranaki saw the biggest annual lift in the country - up 13.1% to $756,000 and Otago was also up 7.4%.
And while there are still plenty of houses on the market across regional New Zealand - around 34,000 nationally - stock is starting to dip in some places. In Southland, Otago, and Gisborne the number of listings dropped sharply in May, which could be an early sign that houses are starting to sell more regularly again.
Lifestyle properties still in demand
The appeal of lifestyle living - space, fresh air, and a sense of community - hasn’t faded. In fact, it's become a long-term trend. More Kiwis are trading the hustle of city life for a home with land, a veggie garden, and room for kids, and/or chickens, to roam.
Many regions, like the Wairarapa, Waikato, Canterbury foothills, and parts of Otago and Southland, continue to see steady interest in lifestyle blocks, especially those within commutable distance to regional hubs. Even as interest rates affect buyer confidence, well-presented lifestyle properties are still attracting attention.
First-home buyers active in the regions
While many buyers are sitting on the sidelines, first-home buyers are still showing up, especially in the regions. They now make up around 25% of all property purchases.
Interestingly, the average age of a first-home buyer is now 36 nationally, and 37 in Auckland. That’s older than it used to be, but not surprising. With higher prices, tighter lending rules, and longer saving periods, many buyers are taking more time before jumping into the market.
The good news? First-home buyers in the regions are getting more value for money. Many are snapping up standalone homes, taking advantage of lower prices and accessing tools like KiwiSaver and low-deposit loans.
What sellers can do this winter
You might hear people say, ‘no one buys houses in winter,’ but the data says otherwise. Yes, property sales drop a bit during the colder months, but not by a huge amount.
Price-wise, the seasonal change is tiny, on average, only about 0.5% between summer and winter. That’s about $5,000 on a $1,000,000 home. So while winter is traditionally a little quieter, buyers are unlikely to get a massive discount just because it’s cold outside.
Be prepared for negotiations, realistic pricing and being patient with timelines. But you can also take advantage of serious buyers who aren’t just browsing, but ready to act.
Some regions are seeing more movement than others, so it helps to know what’s happening locally. Working with a knowledgeable agent can make a big difference.
So while winter isn’t a bad time to sell, it just takes a little extra care:
• Warmth matters: A toasty, dry home makes a great first impression.
• Presentation counts: Tidy gardens, good lighting, and even a pop of seasonal colour can make your home stand out.
• Highlight lifestyle: Whether it’s paddocks, water views, proximity to great local schools, or something else entirely - just make sure to tell the story of what makes your property special.
What buyers can do this winter
If you’re a buyer, you’re in a good position right now. With plenty of homes to choose from, less competition, and interest rates still dropping (a little), you’ve got time to find the right place, negotiate and get your finances sorted.
It gives you room to breathe, compare options, and make smart decisions instead of jumping in under pressure. If your finances are in order and you’ve found the right place, it could be a great time to buy.
What investors can do this winter
Now might not be the time to expect fast capital gains. But if you’re in it for the long haul and you find a well-priced property with solid rental potential, it could still be worth considering.
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The property market isn’t booming, but it’s not crashing either. It’s in a slow recovery mode, with lower interest rates helping a bit, but buyer confidence still catching up. Looking into the second half of 2025, regional markets may start to pick up pace again - especially if interest rates continue to soften.
So if you're thinking about buying or selling, you don't necessarily need to wait for a specific season. It’s more important to keep an eye on interest rates, your personal circumstances, and what’s happening in your local market. Take your time, and make decisions based on your own financial situation, not the headlines.
Need local advice?
Here at PGG Wrightson Real Estate, we know provincial residential, lifestyle and rural property better than anyone. Whether you're buying your first hectare or selling a much-loved family home, our local experts are here to guide you, rain, frost, or shine.
Get in touch for a free winter market appraisal or just a friendly chat.
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